Cover Story (sidebar) / April 1995

The Shape of Systems to Come

Andy Reinhardt

Computers built around the Intel P6 chip will initially resemble today's top-of-the-line Pentium boxes, but they will have an even more upscale configuration. Expect to see at least 1-GB hard drives, 32 MB of RAM or higher, and high-end graphics controllers for workstation applications. Some servers will be multiprocessors.
 
Over the next two years, however, P6 systems will depart from their Pentium predecessors. Desktops will possess more storage and multimedia horsepower than all but today's snazziest workstations. Better built-in diagnostics and error reporting in the P6 will make it easier for vendors to build reliable, enterprise-class servers. And the P6's improved SMP (symmetric multiprocessing) support, in conjunction with new SMP-capable versions of OS/2 and NetWare, will fuel a surge in high-end servers.
 
The Next Stage
 
Intel had expected servers to be the first P6 systems available, with desktop systems not far behind. However, it appears that both servers and desktop units will hit computer stores almost simultaneously. "We will definitely have P6 on the server first, but desktops will immediately follow," says Jeffrey Lu, principal architect for Digital Equipment's PC business unit premium desktop line.
 
Hewlett-Packard sees immediate demand for upscale P6 desktop models. Other companies jumping on the P6 bandwagon include ALR, AST, AT&T Global Information Systems (the former NCR), Dell, Gateway, and Unisys. The first desktop systems will start in the $4000 to $4500 range and climb steadily upward, depending on the configuration. Given the P6's size, power consumption, and heat dissipation (it requires active cooling), don't expect it to appear in battery-powered laptops soon.
 
The first customers — software developers and users of such applications as CAD, desktop publishing, scientific visualization, and statistics — are those who need as many MIPS as they can get. Server customers, however, march to a different beat. Those running NetWare file and print servers aren't CPU-bound and don't need the extra horsepower. But applications servers — NetWare-, OS/2-, Windows NT-, or Unix-based boxes running Lotus Notes, messaging engines, databases, or document repositories — are prime candidates for moving to the P6.
 
Early upgraders share another, somewhat surprising trait, says Eric Harslem, senior vice president of the product group at Dell Computer (Austin, TX): They tend to work for smaller businesses, where systems are running off-the-shelf applications critical to the productivity of the whole organization. By comparison, larger MIS-directed organizations buy into new systems later, typically after one to three months of evaluation.
 
"[These companies] tend to have more custom apps and in-house-developed software, so they need a longer period to test compatibility," Harslem says. For example, if a vendor such as Dell decided to fit P6 systems with a new 128-bit graphics card to balance performance, it could break existing applications not written to standard APIs.
 
Your Basic P6
 
What will the typical P6 system be like? The processor will operate initially at 133 MHz, and the external CPU bus will run at one-quarter, one-third, or one-half of that clock rate, at the discretion of the systems designer. An Intel P6/PCI (Peripheral Component Interconnect) chip set called Orion will support version 2.1 of the 32-bit PCI bus at 33 MHz, but it won't support the 64-bit PCI extensions, says John Hyde, technical marketing manager for the P6 in Hillsboro, Oregon.
 
Due to the built-in level 2 cache, most P6 systems won't have external cache or cache controllers. Main memory will likely be conventional 60-nanosecond DRAM or, in some systems, EDO (Extended Data Out) DRAM, a new higher-speed alternative supported in the Intel Triton chip set for the Pentium. Memory configurations of 16 MB will be common, with a growing number of systems supplying 32 MB. Servers, and increasingly desktops, will ship with ECC (error checking and correcting) memory (10 bits per byte).
 
Initially, P6 systems will offer both PCI and EISA/ISA buses for performance and backward-compatibility. However, as the number of add-ins available for PCI increases, the need for EISA and eventually ISA will lessen. "Everybody in the world can hardly wait for EISA to go away," says Dell's Harslem.
 
A major factor here will be the growth of PCI-to-PCI bus bridges, which are supported in PCI 2.1. The biggest problem with the use of PCI today is its limit of 10 loads, which typically works out to only two to three add-in cards. Bus bridges, like network bridges, allow a larger number of devices within the same logical space while reducing traffic via filtering, says Digital's Lu.
 
Bridging multiple PCI buses will allow, for instance, systems with more useful configurations of six slots, obviating the need for other I/O buses. Having more available PCI loads will allow attachment of not just graphics and storage but also high-speed network interfaces (e.g., 100-Mbps Ethernet, FDDI, and ATM) and high-speed serial I/O (e.g., Fibre Channel, IBM's Serial Storage Architecture, P1394 serial bus, and the Scalable Coherent Interface, or SCI).
 
Storage will likely be at least 730 MB, using IDE or SCSI. Most systems will ship with double-speed or faster CD-ROM drives. Basic graphics will probably have 1024- by 768-pixel resolution, driven by an accelerated graphics card with 2 to 4 MB of SDRAM (synchronous DRAM) or VRAM. A number of these systems will ship with NT, OS/2, Unix, or NetWare preinstalled. Servers and desktops will increasingly support SNMP or DMI.
 
More unusual configurations may include PCMCIA slots, quad-speed CD-ROMs, support for 40-MBps Ultra SCSI, built-in 10-/100-Mbps network ports, and on-board multimedia via DSPs (digital signal processors) or dedicated chips (wave table sound, video I/O, and compression/decompression). Some vendors may opt to use new memory types, 128-bit graphics accelerators, or the 64-bit bus extensions documented in the PCI specification. A few systems could sport new types of I/O ports, such as enhanced parallel or high-speed serial ports.

Desktop Comparison

Desktop today... ...and Tomorrow
1994 1996
486/Pentium, 100 MIPS, 8 to 16 MB of RAM, VL/PCI bus, 540- to 730-MB hard drive, 10-Mbps Ethernet, sound, and graphics acceleration P6, 250 MIPS or higher, 32 to 64 MB of RAM, 32-/64-bit PCI, 1-GB hard drive or higher, 100-Mbps Ethernet, multimedia via DSP, Plug and Play, voice navigation, digital video support, and videoconferencing

Andy Reinhardt is BYTE's West Coast bureau chief.
You can reach him on the Internet or BIX at areinhardt@bix.com.


Copyright 1994-1998 BYTE

Return to Tom's BYTE index page